Overview
Palanor: US vs China reads where China stands against the United States across six arenas — economy, trade, markets, currency, military and global opinion — compared with the balance of the last seven years. 50 is that seven-year balance. Above 50, China is gaining ground relative to it; below 50, the US is. It measures momentum between the two, not which country is bigger: China's economy is 63% of America's in dollars and 134% of it at purchasing-power parity, and both facts sit inside the read.
Why these components
Economy (25%): China's GDP as a share of the US, in dollars and at purchasing-power parity, and the OECD leading indicators for each. Trade (25%): China's global goods surplus, its manufacturing reach, and its share of what America imports, the decoupling read. Markets (20%): twelve-month returns on China's CSI 300 (ASHR) against the S&P 500 (SPY), and the value of China's listed companies as a share of America's. Currency (10%): the yuan against the dollar. Military (10%): China's official defence budget as a share of US national defence spending (China's Ministry of Finance and the BEA). Global opinion (10%): how much more or less favorably the world views China than the US (Pew Research Center, 20-country median).
Methodology
Every component is signed so that a higher reading favors China: a stronger yuan, a larger Chinese surplus, a higher share of US imports, better Chinese returns. Each is a z-score against its own last seven years, except the two equity funds, which use their twelve-month change. Annual series (GDP, market value, military spending, Pew) carry six or seven points in that window; monthly and daily series many more. The weighted sum maps through a logistic to 0–100.
How to read it
Read the component breakdown, not only the number: in September 2026 China gained on currency strength, a $1.2 trillion trade surplus and a ten-point lead in global favorability, while losing on decoupling (China supplies under 8% of US imports, a seven-year low) and its falling share of US GDP in dollars, while China's official defence budget held about level against US spending. Those forces nearly cancel, which is why the index sits at 50: neither side is gaining on the other relative to the last seven years.