What this index reads
Uncertainty is the gap between what markets know and what they need to price. The Uncertainty Index composites six surfaces where uncertainty leaves a fingerprint: equity volatility (VIX), credit-spread expansion, safe-haven currency demand, gold flows, yield-curve disagreement, and household sentiment. High values = markets are unsure; low values = consensus is firm.
Why baseline-relative matters
A raw VIX of 18 means nothing without context. 18 is elevated in a calm cycle and complacent in a stressed one. Palanor reads every index against its 5-year historic baseline. The headline you see — +12 above baseline, −8 below — carries the judgment context the absolute number suppresses.
How to read movement
Watch acceleration as much as level. The Uncertainty Index rising 5 points in two weeks is a regime-tilt signal even if the absolute reading sits near baseline. Decreasing uncertainty during otherwise stable markets is itself information — it tells you what stewards believe, before it tells you what is true.
Revision — 25 September 2026
The credit-spread component read Moody's Baa–10-year spread, whose terms do not allow us to store or republish it. It now reads the Federal Reserve Board's GZ corporate credit spread, a public-domain series built bond by bond since 1973, with the same 20% weight and transform. It averages across credit ratings, so it reads lower than a Baa spread; the index scores it against its own recent history, so the level difference does not carry through. The gold component was described as gold; it is the gold export price index, which tracks the gold price. History was recomputed.
Revision — 25 September 2026
The volatility component read Cboe's VIX, which reached us through FRED under permission granted to FRED, not to Palanor. It now reads OFR Volatility Stress, the volatility category of the US Treasury's Financial Stress Index: about ten volatility measures across US, European, Japanese and emerging-market equities, rates, currencies and oil, of which VIX is one. Weight, direction and transform are unchanged. It tracks the VIX closely (correlation about 0.75) but reads higher when rates or currency volatility is elevated while stocks are calm. History was recomputed.