Many economic numbers change after they are published. The first payroll count is an estimate, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises it twice in the following months. GDP is revised for years. For 45 of the most-revised series, the signal page shows both numbers.
Where to find it
Open a signal such as Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, Real GDP, Retail Sales or Initial Jobless Claims in the Terminal. The First reported vs. revised panel sits under Where it stands. Signals without a release history don't show it.
What the panel shows
- **Two lines.** The dashed line is each value as first published. The solid line is the value today.
- **The measure.** Revisions are read the way the release is read. Payrolls show the monthly change in jobs, CPI and retail sales show the monthly percent change, and GDP shows annualized growth. Rates such as unemployment show the rate itself.
- **The toggle.** Choose Both, First reported or Revised, and a range from 2 years to all history.
- **Hover.** Any point shows the first-reported value and the day it was released, today's value, and the revision between them. Upward revisions are cyan, downward ones coral.
- **The average revision.** The line under the title gives the average revision to the first print over the last 5 years, and its typical size. The last 3 months are left out because they are still being revised.
- **Values.** Open Values under the chart for the most recent releases as a table: 24 for a monthly series, 26 for a weekly one.
How the first print is computed
A first-reported change is the change the release itself reported. It is measured against the prior month as that same release showed it, not as it reads today. That is why the first-reported payroll change matches the headline number on release day.
Where the numbers come from
The release history is the archive of each release kept by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED®). The publishers are BLS, BEA, the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board and the Department of Labor. A new release appears within a day of publication, dated the day it came out.
Revision signals
Two signals track revisions over time. Payroll Revisions shows how much each jobs report changed the prior two months' job gains. Retail Sales Revisions shows how much each report changed the prior month's growth. Both can go in scenarios like any other signal.
Limits
The archive starts at a different date for each series, from 1927 for industrial production to 2014 for some newer series. Months published before it started have no first print, so the lines begin there. These values are shown in Palanor; they are not available through the API.